ENGLAND won the 2019 World Cup on a peculiar count-back regulation and an umpiring error in the middle. Sure, Jofra Archer and Ben Stokes helped too. However, despite England being the best white-ball cricket team since the 2015 World Cup, they still only managed to edge themselves over the line.
And they weren't the best team by a small margin either; they had changed how the game was played by becoming the first team to score over 300 on average in ODI cricket. They had surpassed the magical run-a-ball mark. They accomplished this with more all-rounders than you would have found in South Africa in the 1990s. They batted deep; they batted hard.
Will the former glory hold?
Even with a World Cup at home and everything in their favour, England barely made it across the line. Since then, they have battled injuries in two T20 World Cups but still won the 2022 edition. However, they also spent years ignoring ODI cricket to play T20, so much so that Jos Buttler and Jason Roy said they had to relearn the format. The ECB's former analyst and current senior data scientist, Nathan Leamon, has written an entire piece for ESPNcricinfo on how this will be the most T20-inspired ODI World Cup ever.
This is not just an English thing. Australia, India, and South Africa have now learned how to score at very high levels. Other teams have simply caught up to the World Champions, and the England team has not really improved much.
Crew changes
David Malan has come in for Jason Roy, but he actually plays more like Eoin Morgan, who is retired. So England's ODI opening pair will no longer be as aggressive. Malan being used up the order means that England has Stokes, Buttler, and Livingstone at positions 4, 5, and 6. That is more power than the last edition, for sure.
Chris Woakes and Liam Plunkett batted at seven and eight in the last tournament final after Moeen Ali lost favour. England will probably want Moeen back for number seven, but they also have Sam Curran. Woakes will be lined up to bat at number eight, which seems stronger. All in all, the batting looks solid.
It's the bowling that is shakier. If Jofra Archer is not fit, England doesn't have great death bowling. He also strengthens their new ball and is very experienced in Asia. There is simply no backup for him; he's one of a kind. This isn't their only issue, though; Adil Rashid has struggled to take regular wickets since the last World Cup, and he's very expensive. Moeen Ali is also a sixth bowler now, and getting ten overs from him is tough. It means England is entering a World Cup in Asian conditions without the spin bowling they had last time.
As it currently stands, the new ball bowling looks fine, but England does not look as strong from overs 10-50 as they did last time. If you are placing your money, you're hoping a lot for Sam Curran's T20 World Cup death bowling to hold up - which it did not in the IPL - and for Adil Rashid to have a great tournament.
The bookies' verdict
England were the second favourite at 3/1 across most major bookies before the opening defeat to New Zealand by nine wickets. That was about a 25% chance to win the tournament. I don't think the question should be about England; it should really be about the other teams. India have a 30% chance to win with Australia at 20%. Those are both fair odds. So what about the others? Because if you believe that only three teams can win this World Cup, then England's odds are decent. And you'll likely get a higher price now they've been seen off by one of the mid-range sides.
But if you think South Africa, who have been batting as well as anyone and have a very good bowling attack for India, can finally win, that changes things. Or if you believe that Pakistan and Shaheen Afridi can cut through any top order, then you have to factor them in. And finally, if you can't ignore New Zealand because of their ability to overperform in major tournaments, you suddenly have six teams who can win. And on this form New Zealand should really come into your thoughts.
But if England are one of the only three you think can win, 3/1 is good. If you believe up to six sides can win, then keep your money in your account.
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Read more from Jarrod Kimber
- I asked AI to help me predict the winner of the Cricket World Cup
- Cricket World Cup: What are England's chances
- Cricket World Cup: Who will make the most runs for England
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