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New poll predicts Labour election landslide of 194 seats in unprecedented win

03 June 2024 , 16:13
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It comes as the Tories began the second full week of election campaigning with a vow to enshrine the rights of biological sex over gender
It comes as the Tories began the second full week of election campaigning with a vow to enshrine the rights of biological sex over gender

SIR Keir Starmer will sweep into Downing Street with a bigger landslide than Tony Blair in 1997, according to the latest polling.

The Labour leader is on course for a 194-seat majority — giving Rishi Sunak the biggest electoral kicking in living memory and the loss of several current Cabinet Ministers.

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The poll showed the worst Tory rout since 1906Credit: Getty
The latest polling figures revealed Labour could win with a landslide majority of 194 seats
The latest polling figures revealed Labour could win with a landslide majority of 194 seatsCredit: Getty

If the poll proves correct on July 4, the win would be the highest margin since Stanley Baldwin’s 208-seat majority for the Conservatives in 1924.

Sir Keir is projected to become Prime Minister as his party racks up more gains than at any election since 1945 - smashing through Boris Johnson’s 2019 “Red Wall”.

The survey of 58,000 voters shows Labour set to win 422 seats with the Tories reduced to a paltry rump of 140 MPs in the Commons.

From tongue scraping to saying no, here are 12 health trends to try in 2023From tongue scraping to saying no, here are 12 health trends to try in 2023

The polling was conducted before Nigel Farage revealed he would be standing as a candidate for Reform.

Focus will now move to the ITV debate showdown tonight, where Mr Sunak will attempt to land blows on Sir Keir as part of a damage limitation exercise.

One ex-Tory minister last night said: “Nobody in Tory circles I spoke to wanted the election over the summer. The campaign is so bad that I can believe this polling. We also haven’t even felt the full Farage effect yet.”

One Tory candidate said: “Rishi has to turn this around in the TV debates and the manifesto.”

Senior Tory strategists have yet to see their 20-point poll deficit reduced despite the PM promoting a whole host of popular policies.

Mr Sunak has attempted to make the running with headline-grabbing policies ­including national service, a tax break on pensions for OAPs and ending “Mickey Mouse” university courses.

Labour’s lead is set to be bigger than that projected back in March when they were on course for a 154-seat majority, according to the same big poll.

The election result forecast comes just days after the PM told The Sun he expected England to win the Euros this summer in Germany and he would return to Number 10.

But the polling shows the Conservatives would be on track for their lowest number of MPs since 1906.

Cabinet big beasts are tipped to lose their seats in the devastating analysis by pollsters YouGov.

I want my girlfriend to try dirty talk but she won't do itI want my girlfriend to try dirty talk but she won't do it

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt would be the biggest casualty of the July 4 vote, with fellow victims including Defence Secretary Grant Shapps.

High-profile names such as Alex Chalk and one-time leadership hopeful Penny Mordaunt could see their Commons careers at an end.

Former Cabinet Minister Jacob Rees-Mogg would also find himself losing his seat.

Senior figures such as Education Secretary Gillian Keegan and Common Sense Minister Esther McVey are seen as being at risk.

The polling reveals that Labour is set to make major inroads in all areas of England.

The result would be better than Mr Blair’s 179-seat majority for his first-term victory in 1997.

Sir Keir’s party are set to hold more seats than the Tories in London and the East of England, smashing through the “Blue Wall”.

The mega poll, known as an MRP, models the outcome of the election based on every constituency across Britain.

The Lib Dems are set for a boost under leader Ed Davey, going from 12 seats to 48.

The Greens would double their haul to two seats.

Another MRP poll from More in Common and The News Agents ­podcast released shortly after also predicted a Labour landslide, with 382 seats to the Tories’ 180.

While a Labour win on that scale would not match Mr Blair’s, it would mean the opposition seeing the most substantial single-night gains since the end of World War Two.

However, More in Common’s director Luke Tryl pointed out Labour’s majority could be smaller, as the Tories are projected to lose 43 of the seats by just four points

A Tory source last night said they did not comment on polling.

The battle is on
The battle is on

Summer Raemason

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