The measure of how Gareth Southgate has performed in the job he has held for almost eight years is that nothing less than an appearance in the Euro 2024 final will be deemed good enough in the minds of most England fans.
The reason Southgate is loved by the Football Association is that he has brought stability to the national team. Over the course of the coming weeks, we will know if stability has become staleness.
Southgate has gone into this tournament on autopilot. He knows exactly what to expect, exactly what he is going to be asked, exactly what distractions to avoid, exactly what notes to sound. If he has been told to take off the handbrake once, he has been told a thousand times.
He is suitably energised, suitably excited for the task ahead, suitably motivated. But even before a ball has been kicked in Germany, it is hard to escape the feeling that Southgate, at the age of 53, is a manager ready for a new challenge.
Whatever way you look at it, four tournaments is a long stint for an international manager. The FA would, without doubt, like him to stay on beyond the end of his current contract, which expires in December.
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But does Southgate really want to be pigeon-holed as an FA man for the rest of his career? I doubt it. My hunch is that Southgate will step aside after Euro 2024, regardless of England’s performance out here.
On Wednesday, Mark Bullingham, the FA chief executive essentially said that a succession plan was in the bottom drawer. It would be negligent not to have one.
And he also refused to rule out the possibility of Southgate’s successor being a foreign coach but that is because he probably wanted to avoid the headlines that would follow if he did just that.
Gareth Southgate is preparing England for their Euro 2024 opener (The FA via Getty Images)But the matter should not be up for debate. The FA has invested millions and millions of the money they have earned from people following the national team into a pathway for English coaches and English players, most notably through their set-up at St George’s Park.
To parachute in a big-name foreign coach would be an insult. Presumably, they will remember how it worked when they paid Fabio Capello an obscene amount to look after the England squad.
That is not to say a foreign manager could not be a success in the role - there are plenty out there who would approach the job with a lot more diligence and enthusiasm than Capello showed.
But just as playing for England should be the ultimate ambition of English footballers, ditto for the coaching role. It might not be easy to tempt a leading English manager away from his club ambitions - someone such as Eddie Howe, for example - but the strength of the allure of managing your country cannot be underestimated.
Southgate would probably be asked for his recommendation and my hunch is that he would recommend an English successor. There is a chance, of course, that Southgate will stay but the feeling that a new challenge awaits is growing. And if that is the case, let’s hope he finishes an accomplished tenure in the best possible fashion.
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