31 May 2024 , 09:58
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Donald Trump, now a convicted felon with 34 guilty counts to his name, is barred from owning firearms or casting a vote in many states.
Yet, in just 158 days, the American electorate will determine if he will return to the White House for another four-year term. The bombshell guilty verdict from Thursday's New York hush money trial throws an already unconventional presidential race into chaos, raising serious questions about the justice system and potentially the future of US democracy.
But in a nation starkly split, it remains to be seen if Trump's newly minted felon status will sway the 2024 election outcome. Despite his legal woes and the looming threat of jail time before November's election, Trump is still neck and neck with President Joe Biden, as the Republican ex-president gears up for a fierce electoral battle.
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Former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump gestures as he arrives back at Trump Tower after being convicted in his criminal trial in New York City (AFP via Getty Images)In the immediate aftermath, the unanimous conviction appears to be rallying the Republican Party's various wings, with GOP leaders from Congress to state offices uniting behind their likely presidential candidate. Meanwhile, Trump's campaign anticipates a surge in contributions.
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After the trial, Trump stood outside the courthouse and slammed the proceedings, saying: "The real verdict is going to be Nov. 5 by the people," referring to Election Day. "This is long from over."
The Biden campaign couldn't hide their relief as they swiftly dispatched a fundraising email just moments after the verdict. Despite the outcome, they claimed that the election game remains unchanged.
onald Trump departs the courtroom after being found guilty on all 34 counts (Getty Images)"We're THRILLED that justice has finally been served," they declared in the email. "But this convicted criminal can STILL win back the presidency this fall without a huge surge in Democratic support."
Political insiders are suggesting that the verdict won't significantly disrupt the election. Pollsters have been attempting to measure what a guilty verdict would mean for Trump's support, but forecasting such things is always somewhat of a gamble.
A recent ABC News/Ipsos poll revealed that a mere 4% of Trump loyalists would abandon him if he were found guilty of a felony, with another 16% confessing they'd reconsider their support. Just before the jury's decision, Trump's team released a memo from their pollsters stating that the trial's effects were already accounted for in the key battleground states.
Trump's inner circle believed the trial would actually energise their base. The influx of donations to WinRed, their fundraising platform, was so overwhelming it crashed.
Trump supporters outside the court (Andrea Renault/STAR MAX/IPx)They had to scramble to get a backup system up and running to manage the cash flow. Even with the verdict looming, Trump was off to a pre-planned fundraising event on Thursday night, according to an insider who wasn't authorised to disclose the information publicly.
Donald Trump's top campaign masterminds, Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita, were conspicuously absent in New York but based instead in Palm Beach, Florida where the campaign's nerve centre is situated. The true political consequences of Trump's circumstances remain an enigma with some campaigners suggesting it could be weeks before any discernible effects emerge.
Critics from both political spectrums appear to converge on the idea that the aftermath may be minor, even though there is a tiny hope among some that the convictions might tilt the election balance slightly. Sarah Longwell, who is at the helm of the Republican Voters Against Trump, thinks the verdict might incrementally edge so-called "double haters", voters who have a distaste for both Trump and Biden, further away from Trump.
Supporters react outside court (AFP via Getty Images)Longwell also emphasised that the trial has more or less flown under the radar for most voters. "The best thing about the trial ending is that it ended," she commented, labelling the legal proceeding as a detour from pressing campaign issues.
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She views the conclusion of the trial as an opportunity to reorientate the discussion around Trump's persona and what future implications his re-election bid may have. Given the frenzy of today's news agenda, GOP pollster Neil Newhouse envisions that by the time early voting booths roll out, the trial's influence will probably have faded into obscurity.
"Voters have short memories and even shorter attention spans," Newhouse commented. "Just as the former president's two impeachments have done little to dim Trump's support, this guilty verdict may be overshadowed in three weeks by the first presidential debate."
The plotted roadmap of campaigning after sentencing. The judge has set sentencing for July 11, a mere four days before the expected kick-off of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee.
Each charge of falsifying business records could potentially result in up to four years of prison time, however, it's still unclear whether prosecutors will push for imprisonment. It remains equally uncertain if the judge, who had previously cautioned about possible jail time for violations of the gag order during the trial, would enforce such a penalty upon request.
Even should he not be behind bars on Election Day, Trump retains his voting rights in Florida, having changed his residence there in 2019. Even from within prison walls, Trump could continue chasing his White House dreams.
Lara Trump, Trump's daughter-in-law who supported him in court this week and holds a co-chair position in the Republican National Committee, hinted prior to the verdict in a Fox News Channel interview that Trump will keep up his presidential campaign drive, despite a conviction.
In case Trump is sentenced to home confinement, she professed: "We will have him doing virtual rallies and campaign events if that is the case. And we'll have to play the hand that we're dealt."
There are currently no campaign events on the agenda, but Trump is set to host fundraisers next week. President Biden has not yet made a statement on the matter. Biden spent the previous evening at his family's beach house in Rehoboth Beach, Delaware, after attending a church service earlier in the day to mark the anniversary of his son Beau's passing.