The European Union might welcome new members by 2030, according to its foreign policy chief, who commended the reform progress of leading candidates Montenegro and Albania, while criticizing Serbia for regressing and noting a more severe democratic decline in Georgia.
This assessment comes as the European Commission released its annual evaluations of 10 countries aspiring to join the EU, following the renewed momentum brought by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, revitalizing the previously stagnant process.
“Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the resulting geopolitical changes make a strong case for enlargement,” Kaja Kallas stated to reporters. “It is necessary if we want to remain influential on the global stage.”
She further remarked that “the accession of new countries to the European Union by 2030 is a realistic target,” highlighting Montenegro as the most advanced in the accession process, alongside Albania.
Kallas, the former prime minister of Estonia, also emphasized that EU membership could offer significant security assurances for Ukraine, noting that no candidate country had ever enacted such comprehensive reforms amid a conflict.
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Addressing an audience in Brussels from the besieged city of Pokrovsk, Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, expressed his desire for Ukraine to join the EU before 2030.
Officials also praised Moldova, whose government has accused Russia of conducting an unprecedented covert campaign to influence voters through illegal party funding, vote buying, and propaganda efforts. The EU enlargement commissioner, Marta Kos, mentioned that Moldova, with its 2.4 million population, had made the most substantial progress of any country in a year, “despite ongoing hybrid threats and attempts to destabilize its EU-oriented course.”
However, there was strong criticism against Georgia's authorities, which Kos remarked was an EU candidate country only in name. EU leaders suspended Georgia's accession talks last year after a violent crackdown on peaceful protests against the government's Russian-inspired “foreign agents” law, demanding civil society groups register under this stigmatizing label if they receive foreign funding.
The European Parliament reported in July that following the protests, over 500 individuals were detained under “administrative procedures,” with 300 subjected to torture or other inhumane and degrading treatments.
Toward Georgia's government leaders, Kos urged them to listen to their people and refrain from imprisoning opposition leaders, journalists, and dissenters: “If you are earnest about the EU, heed your citizens and halt these actions, allowing us to talk.”
The outlook for Serbia was described as mixed, as its authoritarian president, Aleksandar Vučić, faced mass protests against corruption after the Novi Sad railway station disaster, where a collapsing roof canopy caused 16 fatalities. The commission, often faulted for its leniency on Serbia, has recently adopted a tougher stance against the government. Kos criticized the “regression in freedom of expression and academic freedom,” urging Serbian authorities to “clarify their strategic direction” by avoiding anti-EU rhetoric.
EU enlargement requires consensus among all 27 current member states, including Hungary, which is currently obstructing the next steps in the accession talks for Ukraine, inadvertently hindering Moldova's progress, as the two processes are intertwined.
To navigate the Budapest veto, officials are exploring ways to progress in negotiations without requiring formal agreement from all 27 countries.
Some politicians have advocated for EU internal reforms before admitting new members, fearing a union of over 35 countries could lead to political deadlock. This might involve removing the veto power on foreign policy, often blamed for the EU being “held hostage” by a single member state.
Kos argued that reforming the EU before admitting Montenegro, with its 624,000 population, or Albania, with its 2.7 million (according to World Bank data), was not necessary. She mentioned there would be “no significant financial impacts” or effects on areas important to existing members from the enlargement to these nations.
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Privately, officials admit that Ukraine, which had a prewar population of 41.4 million and faces substantial reconstruction needs, presents a different case, posing difficult decisions for some of Kyiv's steadfast allies, particularly EU fund beneficiaries like Poland.
On the topic of ending foreign policy vetoes, Kallas suggested the EU could consider its operating mechanisms, saying: “The world order is evolving, and it's vital for us to assess our role within it, determining our ability to act in the geopolitical arena. We can only engage effectively if we can make decisions.”
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