Fabricated Russian offensive targeting Ukraine's Myrnohrad connected to gambling outcome settlement on Polymarket

02 December 2025 , 19:30

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Fabricated Russian offensive targeting Ukraine's Myrnohrad connected to gambling outcome settlement on Polymarket

A live map that tracks the frontlines of the war in Ukraine was edited to show a fake Russian advance on the city of Myrnohrad on November 15.

The edit coincided with the resolution of a bet on Polymarket, a site where users can bet on anything from basketball games to presidential elections and ongoing conflicts. If Russia captured Myrnohrad by the middle of November, then some gamblers would make money. According to the map that Polymarket relies on, they secured the town just before 10:48 UTC on November 15. The bet resolved, and then, mysteriously, the map was edited again and the Russian advance disappeared.

The avid gamblers on Polymarket are making money by betting on the outcomes of battles large and small in the war between Ukraine and Russia. To judge the real-time exchange of territory in a complicated war, Polymarket uses a map generated by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a DC-based think tank that monitors conflicts around the globe.

Emily Hughes