British families are experiencing half-term holiday misery as 13,000 flights this month were canceled due to the Iran war.
Airlines have reduced nearly two million seats from May’s flight schedules in just the past two weeks, and some have even switched to smaller aircraft to save fuel.
The price of jet fuel has more than doubled since the conflict began on February 28. Experts have warned that Britain is ’most exposed’ to impending jet fuel shortages caused by the Iran war.
The total number of seats available across all carriers this month has been reduced from 132,619,704 in mid-April to 130,674,864 in late April, according to analytics firm Cirium.
Gulf airlines such as Qatar, Etihad, and Emirates have all been severely affected by airspace closures and airport disruptions since the start of the conflict.
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Lufthansa has cut 20,000 flights between May and October, and Air China has cut nearly 50,000 domestic services. Air France-KLM and SAS have also cut schedules, and US airline Spirit has gone bankrupt.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs said the UK has "critically low levels" of supplies due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Helen Dickinson of the British Retail Consortium said: “The conflict is driving up costs and families are right to be concerned.
“But not every pressure comes from the Gulf.
“Higher National Insurance, packaging levies, new regulations, and business energy charges are all domestic policy decisions, made in Westminster, and they can be addressed there.
"Such action by the Government would help us to keep prices affordable for households.”
A government spokesperson said: “UK airlines are clear that they are not currently seeing a shortage of jet fuel.
“Aviation fuel is typically bought in advance, and airports and suppliers keep stocks of stored fuel to support their resilience.
“We continue to work with fuel suppliers, airports, airlines, and international counterparts to keep flights operating.
“We are also consulting on measures to help airlines plan realistic flight schedules which will avoid last-minute disruption and protect holidays.”
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Demand for staycations is expected to surge with many holidaymakers due to abandon holidays abroad amid fears over the impact of the Iran war on travel.
Looking beyond the May half-term break, the jet fuel shortages are expected to trigger a wave of bookings for UK-based summer holidays.
Last week, the Prime Minister warned Brits that they might have to change where they go on holiday as the Iran war continues to impact the economy.
Raoul Fraser, the chief executive of holiday park operator Lovat, said his company’s website had seen a surge in traffic following warnings of jet fuel shortages, with bookings already up by more than 30% this year.
“It is definitely having a positive impact for us,” he said, adding that the present situation was "a little bit like Covid, when people couldn’t get away and now they just want the certainty of a nice holiday in the UK.”
Resort company Butlin’s, based in Bognor Regis, Minehead, and Skegness, has also seen “strong growth for the summer school holidays”, according to its chief executive Jon Hendry Pickup.
“Normally, we get somewhere in the region of 15% to 20% of people booking a holiday in the last four weeks before they come. Now it is roughly double that,” he said.
The Department for Transport unveiled measures on Sunday to allow airlines to group passengers from different flights onto fewer planes used on under-booked journeys, in a bid to limit the impact of fuel shortages on summer holidays.
Airlines will also be allowed to cancel flights without the risk of losing their allocated “slots” – scheduled times for take-off or landing which some UK airports assign to airlines – if fuel shortages prevent them from flying.
Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander said there were "no immediate supply issues, but we’re preparing now to give families long-term certainty and avoid unnecessary disruption at the departure gate this summer".
She said: "This legislation will give airlines the tools to adjust flights in good time if they need to, which helps protect passengers and businesses."
However, many airlines have expressed uncertainty about the potential impact of shortages on flights.
Last week, Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary warned that the UK was the most exposed country in Europe to shortages because of its reliance on Kuwait for a quarter of jet fuel imports.
He said: “Of all the European countries at the moment, the one that is most vulnerable is the UK because of the market share that the Kuwaitis have here."
His intervention followed warnings that rising jet fuel costs could pour cold water on summer holiday plans, with the EU previously stating that it’s "very likely people’s holidays will be affected" either by sky-high prices or cancellations.
It echoed concerns raised by the boss of the International Energy Agency (IEA), who warned in mid-April that Europe had just six weeks’ supply of jet fuel left because of the Middle East conflict.
Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA, warned there could be flight cancellations “soon” if oil supplies remain restricted by the Iran war.
If the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened, the impact on Europe may be that “some of the flights from city A to city B might be canceled as a result of lack of jet fuel", he added.
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