24 June 2023 , 21:25
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It is a “coup d’etat” that lays bare the “weakness of the system that Vladmir Putin built”, a Russian expert said last night.
Noone at the Kremlin was prepared for the rebellion - and Russia must now brace itself for a possible civil war.
Oleg Ignatov is the senior Russia analyst at the International Crisis Group, an independent organisation that works to prevent wars.
Speaking yesterday to the Sunday Mirror he said: “This crisis has totally destroyed all the narrative about domestic stability, that Putin controls everything.
“It shows that he can lose control. It shows the limits of his powers.”
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Mr Ignatov described the Wagner Group rebellion as a “coup d’etat”, adding: “You can see that nobody was prepared for it. The security, the presidential administration, the Russian government, they were not prepared for this.
Wagner chief Prizoghin (TELEGRAM/ @concordgroup_official)“Everyone in the Kremlin and security felt that Prigozhin was a Putin guy. He got everything he had because of Putin. He earned his fortune because of Putin.
“They didn’t do anything to prevent this situation. It’s only now that they can see that Putin didn’t actually control him.”
He said the rebellion’s outcome would depend on how many loyal troops Putin could muster.
“Different scenarios are possible and everything could happen very quickly,” he said:
“If Prigozhin wins it would be a game-changer. A lot of events will happen in Russia. Different groups will fight for power.
“If Putin wins, of course we will see a crackdown on Prigozhin and Wagner.
“It is a very dangerous situation. Nobody knows how many loyal troops Putin has. Most of the Russian troops are in Ukraine. Outside the frontlines there are almost no Russian troops. Who could bet on their loyalty right now?
“It is an absolutely new crisis. The last time we saw tanks in Moscow it was in 1993, so 30 years ago. It is the worst crisis for Putin.
“Nobody knows, but a civil war is one of the scenarios that is possible.”
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As for the consequences for Ukraine, Mr Ignatov said this was difficult to predict.
“I would like to emphasize that Prigozhin wasn’t against the war,” he said. “He supported all the pro-war agenda. His beef was that the Russian military were doing everything badly, not that the war itself was bad.
“I am not sure if he has a plan with what to do with Ukraine right now. The main thing for him right now is to survive this situation.”