With the new coronavirus variant known as Pirola currently ripping through the UK, all eyes are on news of what could happen this winter.
Top scientists have admitted they "know nothing about" the strain, as positive cases have doubled almost every few days in the past few weeks, resulting in the new fast-mutating virus quickly taking over as England's dominant Covid strain. It has made experts worry so much the World Health Organisation has placed it on its watch list after it was confirmed the variant has more than 30 different mutations, making it difficult for scientists to analyse properly.
It is thought that there will be a huge surge of cases from the BA.2.86 strain as the country heads into autumn – as was seen when the Coronavirus Pandemic was at its most dangerous in 2020 and 2021. After officials confirmed testing and community surveillance are set to be "scaled up" before the cold weather sets in, one expert has discussed the chances of a winter lockdown being called by the government. Dr Simon Clarke, a microbiologist from the University of Reading told MailOnline: "The chances of any sort of lockdown or tiered restrictions are vanishingly small," he explained.
"That would only be considered if there were an outbreak of a particularly novel, nasty form of flu or a variant of Covid that can overwhelm the immunity currently found in the population. While neither is impossible, they're not worth people losing sleep over."
Possible explanations for Pirola’s emergence include a mass gathering event seeding multiple countries, an ongoing outbreak in a country that isn’t tracking variants, or, worryingly, widespread community transmission that remains undetected despite the efforts of scientists and researchers. Due to the little data, and how early on it is, it is difficult to draw conclusions on the exact nature of Pirola.
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New data from the ZOE health study shows there were 92,965 new daily cases of symptomatic Covid infection on September 1, nearly double the 50,000 we were seeing at the start of August. The ZOE heath app collects data reported from millions of users and now estimates around 1.15million people in the UK currently have the virus.
As a precautionary measure, the flu and Covid autumn vaccine programmes have been brought forward and will now start on September 11. University of East Anglia's infectious disease expert, Professor Paul Hunter, meanwhile, is sceptical about the benefits a future lockdown would bring.
He explained to the same publication: "I think the value of non-pharmaceutical interventions has fallen substantially since the early days of the pandemic. Early on the benefits from lockdowns were worth the harms but now I think any harm for lockdown would overshadow any benefits. Last year the ONS infection survey showed that wearing masks were associated with about a 20 to 30 per cent reduced risk of infection prior to omicron but from February 2022 they had little benefit."
Discussing the forthcoming programme, Chief Executive of the UK Health Security Agency, Dame Jenny Harries explained: "As we continue to live with Covid-19 we expect to see new variants emerge. Thanks to the success of our vaccine programme, we have built strong, broad immune defences against new variants throughout the population. However, some people remain more vulnerable to severe illness from Covid-19.
"This precautionary measure to bring forward the autumn programme will ensure these people have protection against any potential wave this winter. There is limited information available at present on BA.2.86 so the potential impact of this particular variant is difficult to estimate.
"As with all emergent and circulating Covid-19 variants - both in the UK and internationally - we will continue to monitor BA.2.86 and to advise government and the public as we learn more. In the meantime, please come forward for the vaccine when you are called."
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