A new leader in Russia would likely be keen to end the war in Ukraine and allow the country to rejoin the international community - if Vladimir Putin has really died, according to a world affairs expert.
Prof Anthony Glees, security and intelligence expert at the University of Buckingham, says a power handover would potentially see a shift back towards the West in an effort to end damaging economical sanctions imposed.
Rumours have been rife for months about the Russian President's allegedly declining health, with Telegram channel General SVR - claiming he suffered a cardiac arrest at his Moscow home last weekend. The channel claims it has a source inside the 71-year-old dictator's entourage, though the Kremlin swiftly denied he had fallen ill, before further unconfirmed reports claimed Putin had died.
Prof Glees said there is a very good chance Putin is dead and may have been for some time. He told the Mirror: "A Kremlin denial is not worth a row of beans. This is a world of whispers, this is a wilderness of mirrors, trying to pick up the reflection. So you then come onto the question of who would replace him if he really was dead?" He has named the two likely candidates to take over from Putin if he has died. They are Ramzan Akhmadovich Kadyrov, Head of the Chechen Republic, and Dmitry Patrushev, Russia's Minister of Agriculture. He described them as the "only two people who come into the picture".
Rumours are rife that Vladimir Putin has died (POOL/AFP via Getty Images)He said Patrushev is "deeply embedded in Putin's system". He continued: "He is clearly trusted by Putin. He’s quite young, he’s 46 years old, he’s got that look about him that suggests that he is a likely candidate. On the other hand, you’ve got that awful Chechen warlord Akhmadovich Kadyrov, who’s 47, great big fat freak and killer. He is a thug, a thoroughly nasty piece of work.
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"If there were a coup against Putin, against those people trying to pretend he’s not dead or very ill. That would be the Chechen warlord, he’s a man of action and has troops behind him. If, on the other hand, we are seeing a Soviet style transfer of power, the Kremlin are calling the shots, they are framing the narrative, they want to pace it, then I think it’s Patrushev."
Prof Glees said another problem with Kadyrov is there are rumours his health is poor and he has kidney problems, as well as being "very overweight". In terms of what is in the best interests of the West, he said Patrushev is "more likely to be somebody you could do a deal with".
Prof Glees says a new leader may be keen to end the war in Ukraine (AFP via Getty Images)"If Patrushev has any sense, and he looks to me like he’s a smart cookie, he’s doing the right things. He’s the person the West would like. Kadyrov, on the other hand, he's basically a chaos merchant. He hasn’t got the skills that propelled Putin to the top that were recognised early on by the KGB. He’s a smart man, Putin, he knows how to manipulate people and to buy people off, bribe people. Patrushev knows all this, but Kadyrov is a thug, he only knows how to blow people up."
He continued: "There’s that fear of don’t let go of Putin for finding something worse but worse than Putin doesn’t exist, he’s as bad as you get. Putin is a coldblooded, calculated killer, I don’t think Patrushev is and I don't think Kadyrov is coldblooded, I think he’s hot blooded, and in the end hot blooded people don’t do terribly well."
Referring to the Ukraine war, he said there's a good chance a new leader brings it to an end. "Putin is so bogged down in it, it either ends in his victory or his death. One way or another, and it’s not going to be his victory, NATO is not going to let him win. It’s not going to happen and he’s not going to use nuclear weapons, because if he was, he would have done it already."
The war could be called off this winter, he believes (Global Images Ukraine via Getty)Asked how an end to the war could come about and when, if indeed a new leader is brought in shortly, Prof Glees said: "There’s this phrase 'General Winter', the bitter cold in eastern Europe will freeze the fighting more or less where it is. We’re not far off that point. It gets colder and colder, and once General Winter hits, that would be a good time to change over. The Russians have got territory, a new leader could barter.
"He wouldn’t necessarily have to win, he could say give us a bit and we’ll go away. People might lean on Zelensky and say there are one or two places, Crimea is one of them. A deal could be done with a new leader. That would make sense for the West, because if we’ve got this business in the Middle East to contend with it would be very much in our interests that the Ukraine war comes to an end."
Governor of Chechnya Ramzan Kadyrov (Getty Images)He added: "These sanctions are hitting Russia and hitting Russians, the state controlled media says they’ve got their national identity back but in the end forgive the cliche but 'it’s the economy, stupid'. And that applies to Russia as it does to anywhere else. It was the economy that brought the Soviets down, that was it. It was the fact that people couldn’t buy stuff and they saw people in the West could buy stuff.
"It's terrible news from the battle front, Ukraine has punched a hole in Russia’s three line defences, they are carrying out all these skirmishes on the other side of the river, Biden's giving them all the arms they want. With a new leader you’ve got a fresh start, we can offer Russia a way back into the community of nations again. You’d have to be stark stirring mad not to go for that. It cannot be done with Putin there, he is so deeply entrenched. But if there’s a biological solution to the problem of Putin we should cheering."
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