A week of low politics and high politics. Where to start?
The low, I reckon. And really, it doesn’t get much lower than Nigel Farage. To be fair, and I hate being fair here, I had a pint with him a few years ago when he was out on the campaign trail in Kent. He was very pleasant, good company, totally plausible, and utterly impossible to reconcile with the views he holds.
Which is what makes him so utterly, utterly dangerous. I was at Tory Conference one time and ended up having dinner with a pollster. We were discussing Brexit and he told me the interesting thing was nothing moved the dial. Everyone’s view was locked in. You were either Remain or Leave – and nothing was going to change your mind..
Nigel Farage on I'm a Celebrity (ITV/REX/Shutterstock)Everything they threw at people – there would be a third world war, economic collapse, bananas would be bent again – made absolutely no difference to the polling the whole way through. The only thing that caused a bit of a shift – maybe a crucial shift – was Farage standing in front of that horrific poster talking about immigration.
He is undeniably influential, in the malign sense. Anyways, now he’s in the jungle, with a lovely platform to get various points across to the nation. In fact, the odds on him becoming the next Tory leader went from 40/1 to 20/1 after Wednesday’s episode.
Welsh Labour prepare for snap election as Tories on brink of being 'overwhelmed'
Frightening thought. One Whitehaller I spoke to even suggested a Braverman/Farage dream ticket. What kind of dream is that? Anyways, high politics, and the horror show that was the Autumn Statement. How quickly did it unravel? Heralded in the immediate aftermath as a great giveaway, it quickly became clear that it was nothing of the sort.
Highest tax burden, house prices going wild and the biggest drop in living standards for decades. The high politics here is that it looked like a short-term giveaway but is really a long-term trap for whoever comes into government next and has to inherit it.
Smoke and mirrors, of course. Paul Johnson from the Institute for Fiscal Studies said a lot of the numbers in the Autumn Statement are “sort of made up”. Which is not what you look for, at a precarious point like this. Seems the Conservatives have one eye on what’s next, leaving their own version of that “there’s no money left” note.
If ever we’ve seen conditions for an early general election, they are here. Tories are on high alert from January 1. Maybe we could go in the spring, before everyone works out how bad things really are.
Long winter in store. But finally a bit of light at the end of a 13-year tunnel.
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