Tories on course for 1997-style wipeout as poll predicts Labour landslide

03 April 2024 , 15:37

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Rishi Sunak is facing potential Tory wipeout at the polls (Image: Getty Images)

The Tories are on course for a 1997-style election wipeout, with their numbers reduced to just 155 seats, a new mega-poll shows.

Seat-by-seat analysis by YouGov suggests Labour would sweep to power with 403 seats, handing Keir Starmer a massive majority of 154. This is more than double the majority Boris Johnson won in 2019.

The survey of more than 18,000 people predicts Labour would gain 201 seats compared to 2019, taking the party within reach of the landslide Tony Blair won in 1997, where Labour took 418 out of the 659 seats available.

Meanwhile, the poll predicts Rishi Sunak would lose 210 MPs, putting the Conservatives on course for a worse defeat than Sir John Major suffered at the hands of New Labour.

The MRP poll by YouGov predicted a Labour landslide at the next election

A string of top Tories would lose their seats including Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, Transport Secretary Mark Harper, Justice Secretary Alex Chalk, and Penny Mordaunt, the Commons Leader. Ex-Cabinet Minister Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg and former Conservative leader Sir Ian Duncan Smith are also at risk.

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Ms Mordaunt has been touted as a possible successor to Mr Sunak, but her vulnerability will make her a risky pick.

Meanwhile, Labour would become the largest party in Scotland, on 28 seats to the SNP's 19. It would mark a stunning reversal of fortunes for Labour, which was all but wiped out north of the border in 2015.

The Liberal Democrats are predicted to take 49 seats - an increase of two since January, up by two seats based on our January model, to 49, continuing to set the path for a significant parliamentary comeback without any significant changes to its national vote share.

But in bad news for Nigel Farage, Reform UK is set to come second in 36 seats - but win none. In the seats where Reform has its highest vote share - Barnsley North and Hartlepool - the 27% of the vote is twenty points behind Labour, who are the projected winners. There are no constituencies where Reform are within ten points of the winning party.

The findings are likely to reignite Tory warfare as panicking MPs turn their fire on Mr Sunak for failing to revive party fortunes.

:: The model is based on vote intention data collected and analysed by YouGov from 18,761 British adults interviewed from 7-27 March.

Lizzy Buchan