Rishi Sunak could be ousted from Parliament by tactical voting at the next election, according to a mega-poll predicting a wipeout for the Tories.
New analysis of Best for Britain’s huge poll found 13 million voters were ready to cast their ballot tactically to change the party in government. There are 159 seats where the poll predicted the Tories to either win or lose by less than 5% of the vote - which means those willing to vote tactically will hold huge power in the election.
And the Tories could claw back 82 seats from those predicted to fall to Labour by increasing their vote in the area by less than 5%.
Best for Britain's analysis suggests tactical voting in these knife-edge seats can prevent the Tories securing a platform of 187 seats - from which they could more realistically regain power within five years.
Naomi Smith, CEO of Best for Britain and founder of tactical voting site GetVoting.org said: “When Sunak finally finds the mettle to call an election, polls will narrow, meaning large-scale tactical voting could be the difference between the current crop of Tories missing a turn and being sent on an extended period to political wilderness. Giving voters the information they need is now more important than ever.”
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Some 70 of the 98 seats the Tories are predicted if the poll is mirrored on election day are considered marginal or ultra-marginal - including those held by the PM, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Michael Gove, Priti Patel and Suella Braverman. In the poll of more than 15,000 people undertaken by Survation, 41% of respondents said they would consider voting tactically to secure a change of Government.
Tactical voting for change was the most popular choice in 510 (80%) constituencies across Britain including 255 of the 372 won by the Conservative Party in 2019. A Majority of Labour (59.7%) , Lib Dem (60%) and Green (54%) voters said they were ready to vote tactically to remove the government.
But just 30% of Tories and 10% of Reform voters were willing to do the same. Overall, just 12% of those polled said they would vote tactically to save the current Government, and it wasn’t the most popular option in any constituency in the country.
The poll predicted the Prime Minister could hold onto his Richmond seat by a wafer thin 2% of the vote, with Labour in second place.
But exactly the same number of voters in the seat said they may vote tactically to oust the government as said they’d vote tactically to save it - 37.1% - meaning his position could be even more precarious than previously thought.
The poll model gives the Tories a 59% chance of winning the seat, with Labour on 38%. The probability of either the Lib Dems or the Greens winning is zero, according to the poll model, with Reform UK's chances at just 3%.
In this example, Lib Dem or Green voters willing to switch would be better off casting a vote for Labour if their aim is to oust the PM.
It would make Mr Sunak the first incumbent Prime Minister ever to lose his seat at a general election. Ms Smith added: "Having wrecked the economy, broken the NHS, polluted our rivers and botched the Brexit deal, it’s no wonder millions of voters want to cast their vote in whichever way is best to get this Government out, and keep them out."
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