Your morning toast, pint at the pub, and favourite biscuits could all cost you more as experts warn that the UK's soggy winter may lead to a significant reduction in UK crop yields.
The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) has analysed the crop area forecasts from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHBD) and government yield data. it found there could be a 17.5% decrease in the production of key crops like wheat, barley, oats, and oilseed rape, that's about four million tonnes less compared to last year.
The decline may be more than five million – or 21.2% – if compared to the average production of the years 2015 to 2023, the analysis also suggests. It comes as the unusually wet autumn resulted in lower levels of planting, while relentless storms and flooding over winter led to even more losses for British farmers.
Tom Lancaster from ECIU didn't mince his words when he highlighted the "real risk" of price hikes for bread, beer, and biscuits if this dismal harvest translates into steeper costs for producers. This potential increase in food prices comes just as shoppers were starting to see some respite from the inflation surge driven by the global gas price crisis.
Wheat production could be hit particularly hard, with the ECIU estimating a fall of more than a quarter – 26.5% – compared to 2023. This is because milling wheat used to make bread needs to meet higher quality requirements that will be more difficult for farmers to achieve with the wet weather.
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Last week, the boss of Associated British Foods one of the UK's largest breadmakers, which owns Kingsmill and Ryvita warned that prices could rise if the increased cost of domestic grains isn't balanced by larger harvests overseas. The ECIU has said that the ongoing wet weather is disrupting the planting of spring crops like barley, which could lead to brewers and distillers facing higher costs and consequently, an increase in the price of a pint.
Colin Chappell, a Lincolnshire arable farmer and member of the Nature Friendly Farming Network (NFFN), said: "It's had a massive impact on us. We went through the winter with virtually nothing viable drilled, and while it's now dry enough to plant some fields some of them are so bad I don't think they'll get drilled this year. The situation is very hit and miss."
This comes after the National Farmers' Union (NFU) recently stated that extreme weather poses one of the biggest threats to UK food security. As the climate warms, we can expect to see more frequent warmer, wetter winters similar to the one we've just experienced.
Mr Lancaster said: "To withstand the wetter winters that will come from climate change, farmers need more support. The Government's green farming schemes are vital to this, helping farmers to invest in their soils to allow them to recover faster from both floods and droughts. Moving faster to net zero emissions is the only guaranteed way to limit these impacts and maintain our food security," he added.
Mr Chappell highlighted the Government's new Sustainable Farming Incentive as a lifeline for his farm's future, saying, "The climate is making farming on heavy clay soils like mine very difficult and quite demoralising,".
East Anglian farmer William Kendall, who transformed Green & Blacks into a worldwide chocolate favourite, advocates for regenerative agriculture: "Regenerative farming methods, when properly followed, greatly enhance the soil's capacity to hold water and therefore prevent saturation and run-off at times of prolonged heavy rainfall."
"Not only does this mean better crops, produced at a lower cost for the farmer, but it ensures that the chances of the flash flooding downstream we have seen this winter are greatly diminished."
Emma McClarkin, chief executive of the British Beer and Pub Association, expressed concerns over rising business costs post-pandemic: "Since the pandemic, managing the cost of doing business for brewers and pubs, including dealing with an overall increasing tax burden, has proven more difficult than usual."
"This year's prolonged rain and the effect that it may have on the winter harvest is yet another unexpected cost factor. Brewers and pubs will strive to absorb some of these costs, but with margins at historical lows, if it cannot be avoided, some costs will have to be passed on, underlining the urgency for the government to set out a long-term fiscal and regulatory framework that will ensure that the beer and pub sector does not just survive, but thrives."
A Government spokesperson said: “We have protected over 900,000 acres of agricultural land from the impacts of flooding since 2015, and are investing £5.6 billion to better protect communities from flooding and coastal erosion.
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“We have opened the Farming Recovery Fund, which provides grants of up to £25,000 to eligible farmers affected by Storm Henk. We continue to keep the weather situation and the subsequent impact on the 2024 harvest under close review.”
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