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Play-off winners decided as Leeds, Southampton, Norwich and West Brom do battle

11 May 2024 , 08:00
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The Championship play-off final takes place on Sunday, May 26 (Image: James Gill - Danehouse/Getty Images)
The Championship play-off final takes place on Sunday, May 26 (Image: James Gill - Danehouse/Getty Images)

The League One and Two play-off finals have been decided, so step forward, the Championship.

After one of the most bizarre automatic promotion battles in recent memory saw Leicester and Ipswich book their tickets to next season's Premier League, there are still four teams waiting in line and hoping to grab the final spot.

The semi-finals kick-off on Sunday at Carrow Road, as Leeds - who've never been promoted via the play-offs in their history - visit Norwich before they meet again in Yorkshire next Thursday. Later on, West Brom will play host to Southampton at the Hawthorns, with their second leg taking place on the south coast next Friday.

Two sides will then battle it out under the Wembley arch on Sunday, May 26. We asked the Mirror Football team to predict who'll come out on top...

Andy Dunn - Southampton

When it comes to Championship play-offs, feel free to use the old cup cliche: form can go out of the window.

Jesse Marsch inspired to battle on at Leeds by United States President's speech qhiqhhiquhiqkeprwJesse Marsch inspired to battle on at Leeds by United States President's speech

In 2010, Leicester City came into the play-offs on a run of five consecutive wins and were turned over on penalties in the semi-final by Cardiff City. In 2017, Huddersfield had won one in five ahead of the play-offs and ended up in the Premier League.

It is a sweeping generalisation but nothing that has gone before these sudden death games counts for that much. But Leeds United have a psychological battle to fight - not just because of their play-off record but because they had looked like finishing in the top two for so long.

Norwich City have not often looked like a promotion force while Southampton have beaten West Brom twice already this season. If they make it three in the play-off semi-finals, their style of play is tailor-made for a successful day at Wembley and that is why Russell Martin's side is my choice to go up.

Neil McLeman - Southampton

Waching Real Madrid in the Champions League, you just know they will find a way to win. As a Leeds fan, suffering the cursed Whites in the play-offs is completely the opposite. The Elland Road club have never been promoted through the post-season matches starting with the old Division Two playoff against Charlton in 1987.

So when Daniel Farke's side collapsed against QPR in their penultimate match, there has been a feeling of inevitability about the outcome to this season. The play-offs are all about momentum and Leeds, in great form before the international break, have lost their at the crucial time with just one win in six.

All four teams have shown late-season jitters but Leeds also carry the weight of history and finishing in third place. Beating Norwich to reach the Wembley final will only prolong the agony. Southampton were the better team at Elland Road and will join Leicester in making an immediate return to the Premier League.

Your turn! Who'll win the Championship play-offs? Give us your prediction in the comments section

Play-off winners decided as Leeds, Southampton, Norwich and West Brom do battleRussell Martin led Southampton to fourth but has endured plenty of scrutiny (Matt Watson/Southampton FC via Getty Images)

Felix Keith - Leeds

The Championship is regularly described as the least predictable league around. But here goes my 100 per cent guaranteed predictions for the lottery of the play-offs.

Momentum can often be a key factor in the play-off, yet none of the four sides have any of that, with a paltry six wins from their last 20 league matches collectively. So I am backing squad quality – and I believe Leeds have the best in that category. The front four – and in particular Crysencio Summerville – are very good indeed. Leeds beat Norwich home and away this season and I think they'll get past them again.

Southampton are also blessed with lots of good players. They beat West Brom home and away and the Baggies are a well-suited opponent for Russell Martin's playing style. They will set up a play-off final with Leeds. And then they will lose.

Leeds give Klich emotional send-off as star prepares to join RooneyLeeds give Klich emotional send-off as star prepares to join Rooney

Saints showed an unhappy knack of flopping when it mattered in chasing an automatic promotion spot. They have capitulated from strong positions, given away terrible goals and been guilty of inviting pressure late in games. Yes, they beat Leeds 2-1 at Elland Road recently and won the reverse fixture in September, but the confidence which defined their 25-game unbeaten streak has deserted them of late. Heartbreak incoming.

Tom Victor - Southampton

When it comes to the Championship play-offs, it can be tempting to back the team with momentum on their side. That's impossible this year, though, with all four contenders limping over the line.

Instead, I'm going with the team who knows how to get the measure of their rivals, and backing Southampton. In six league meetings against the other three teams in the play-offs, Russell Martin’s side haven't tasted defeat even once.

Sure, they might have relied on a 97th-minute equaliser in the first of those games, at home to Norwich back in August, but did the double over Leeds and West Brom as well as claiming a point at Carrow Road on New Year's Day.

Martin's team are also the highest-scoring among the contenders, averaging close to two goals per game. Two of the last three winners have laid claim to the same stat (Luton last year were the exception), and potentially tight games could see glory go to whoever can find a goal from somewhere when they need it the most.

Play-off winners decided as Leeds, Southampton, Norwich and West Brom do battleSouthampton beat Leeds home and away this season - including on the final day (Matt Watson/Southampton FC via Getty Images)

Megan Feringa - Leeds

The Championship play-offs is football at its grimiest, unbridled best. And if there's a team that thrives in volatile cauldrons, it's Leeds.

But not this version of Leeds. This version of Leeds is a whimper of the roaring mercurial beast that defined much of this season. Leeds' implosion after the spring international break has been phenomenal. Like watching a chef forget how to crack an egg. Or Charles Barkley in Michael Jordan's Space Jam forgetting how to dunk. And unless Daniel Farke can exorcise whatever hoodoo has paralysed his side, the Championship play-offs belong to Southampton.

Neither West Brom nor Norwich have been impressive in the season's final throes, but the Canaries can at least claim not to have lost more than one match in the last five heading into the play-offs. For Leeds, that form is worth heeding.

All of which points to the Saints marching to the Premier League. Which probably means Leeds, drama and all, will somehow discover they've been switched to "bad mode" for these last few weeks and switch back to "top-flight mode" come Saturday.

Play-off winners decided as Leeds, Southampton, Norwich and West Brom do battleLeeds boast an attack capable of causing any opposition problems (Athena Pictures/Getty Images)

Alan Smith - Norwich

Leeds, clearly, possess the best squad of the four contenders but history indicates falling just short of automatic promotion can prohibit play-off success, while Southampton enjoyed a prolonged spell midway through the campaign where they were outstanding only to be very sketchy since.

For both the recent head to head records against Norwich and West Brom point to a comfortable progression towards Wembley. Except things are never straightforward at this point of a campaign and only a fool would rule any of the quartet out before a game is played.

Momentum often plays a role and none of the sides are coming in off a winning streak to close the regular season. Yet Norwich, with 17 points fewer than Leeds' 90, lost just one of their final six compared to Leeds losing four and Albion and Saints three each.
So why not pick the yo-yoing Canaries to land the goldmine of another Premier League promotion?

Play-off winners decided as Leeds, Southampton, Norwich and West Brom do battleJonathan Rowe has shone for Norwich this season (PA)

Mike Walters - Norwich

This is one of the most difficult play-off races to predict in the Championship because none of the four combatants is in irresistible form. Twelve months ago, Luton had wind in their sails and providence seemed determined to cap their rags-to-riches rise from non-league to the Premier League.

In 2022, Nottingham Forest needed charitable penalty decisions to go their way at Wembley, but Steve Cooper's climb from the bottom to the top three was another fairytale no grinch was going to spoil. But one thing is for certain: The Championship play-offs are nearly always gut-wrenching, buttock-clenching constipation.

Ten of the last 20 finals have finished 1-0, another four have been settled by a single-goal margin and two have gone to penalties. Leeds are the biggest club in this year's lottery but their form since Good Friday has been dodgier than reheated prawns; Southampton will pass you to death but often omit the most important part and West Browmich Albion are a curate's egg.

That leaves Norwich - who were useless until November, but in David Wagner they have the only boss in this year's lottery who has won the golden ticket to the Premier League via the play-offs before (with Huddersfield in 2017).

Kieran King - Southampton

Southampton are the team I fancy to win the play-offs. Russell Martin's side ended the campaign with a 2-1 win over Leeds and I think that will give them the boost they need to get over the line and win promotion back to the Premier League at the first attempt.

The fact Saints have already beaten semi-final opponents West Brom twice does help does help their cause. Plus, Southampton have also not lost to any of their play-off rivals this season. Should they win, whoever they face out of Norwich or Leeds in the final should not faze them.

Although Saints had lost their previous three matches before the win over Leeds, form goes out of the window going into the play-offs and I think simply their mentality having got a decent record against West Brom, Leeds and Norwich will make them come out on top. Southampton to win it.

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Nathan Ridley

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