22 May 2024 , 16:51
461
0
With the Tories trailing so far behind in the opinion polls, Rishi Sunak’s decision to call an election now may look like insanity.
Our election tracker on Saturday put Labour 20 percentage points ahead.
If Keir Starmer repeats that margin of victory on polling day, he will sweep into Downing Street with an even bigger majority than Tony Blair got in 1997. It would be the Conservative Party’s worst general election result in history, with hundreds of MPs losing their seats including many Cabinet ministers.
But the Prime Minister has decided to cut and run as he thinks things are not going to get better than they are now.
While most families are still feeling the pinch, official figures announced yesterday (WEDS) showed that inflation - the rate at which prices rise - has dropped to 2.3%. It came on the heels of the news a fortnight ago that the country had tiptoed out of recession.
Michelle Mone's husband gifted Tories 'over £171k' as Covid PPE row rumbles on
As he got soaked through outside No10 tonight, Mr Sunak used a line we will hear a lot in the next few weeks, that this is “proof” his plan is working. But secretly Downing Street was worried if he held off longer these economic figures might take a turn for the worse, with inflation nudging back up slightly.
Some of the other reasons to wait had also vanished. The Tories were hoping they might be able to announce tax cuts in Autumn to move the dial, but the latest economic forecasts suggest Chancellor Jeremy Hunt won’t have any spare cash.
And the small boats crisis in the Channel is getting worse. The number of people making the dangerous journeys is up on last year - with concerns the good weather this summer will bring record crossings, demonstrating the threat of the Rwanda scheme is not working as a deterrent. That would have been a nightmare ahead of polling day.
The Prime Minister is gambling that he can pull off a miracle by smashing Labour’s poll lead during the intense six weeks of the election campaign. But he is going to have one hell of a task.