RISHI SUNAK may be a teetotaller but no one can escape the New Year hangover after that bonk- ers 12 months in politics.
While the Prime Minister has spent his first ten weeks in No 10 tinkering under the bonnet, 2023 is the year he needs to start driving the car.
“Reasonable Rishi” has undoubtedly calmed things down with a bit of Christmas breathing space for war-weary Tory MPs — and for the voting public who have watched the scenes of chaos in Westminster with horror.
But simply surviving is not enough, with Tory activists and some donors making the point that the country needs a leader, not just a manager.
While MPs have had their feet up with a glass of Baileys, Sunak has been at his desk mulling over a big speech setting out just how he will turn things around in what may be the last full year before a general election.
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As one Sunak aide said: “People want to be proud of the country again and we need to show them how we can achieve that.”
Preparing for rolling strikes through January has taken up all the band-width, with plans for his “who I am and what I stand for” moment, ironically, still a work in progress.
While Downing Street is praying it will be short and shallow, the economy being in recession scotches any chance of going to the polls before 2024 — though Sunak’s team are confident Labour’s seemingly massive lead is soft with plenty of wavering undecided voters to play for.
Tory strategists say there is a “narrow and steep” route to victory still, with the “jury still out” on Sir Keir Starmer.
But it is a tough ask after the year of three PMs, four Chancellors, coordinated strikes, record NHS waiting lists and Britain’s borders made a laughing stock.
While MPs in the Tory shires of the South say the new PM is going down well on the doorstep in seats where the Liberal Democrats are the challengers, MPs in the North facing a resurgent Labour are less sure.
The first big test of that will come at May’s local elections, where Town Halls and big councils in Red Wall seats that handed Boris Johnson — and by inheritance Sunak — that massive majority will go to the polls.
I have seen little evidence the Tories will get anything other than a hiding.
While under Boris such a drubbing would have triggered a fresh round of leadership specu-lation, any Tory MP seriously contemplating another change of leader needs their head checked.
So while some of the former PM’s more devout cultists in Parliament may launch a fresh round of “BBB” — Bring Back Boris — chatter, the perpetual Partygate probe, as well as the quarter-of-a-million-an-hour speaking gigs BoJo is racking up means it will remain wishful thinking.
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That’s not to say there are not going to be some big old barnies in the coming months.
Sunak took just two days off for Christmas due to his bulging in-tray.
Battles are coming with Scottish nationalists on con- troversial trans legislation, as well as a Westminster-imposed ban on devolved governments boycotting Israel, anti-strike legislation and an immigration bill.
Bulging in-tray
Expect howls of outrage in the House of Lords.
And the PM has made some tough New Year’s resolutions for his government.
The Stanford business grad has set clear metrics for his ministers, with twice-weekly meetings on small boats pen- cilled in.
He will also be breathing down the neck of Health Secretary Steve Barclay, with a similarly hands-on approach to sorting the NHS backlog.
“All roads lead back to sorting NHS capacity”, says one No 10 insider. “Fix that and lots of other problems go away.”
There is little doubt, however, that strikes will dominate the first quarter of 2023.
I predict some neat trickery to try to defuse the rolling industrial action in the spring.
I suspect, however, the militant union leaders have got a taste for it now and would rather a Labour government, so I don’t hold much hope.
Tricky spot
Which leaves Sir Keir in a tricky spot and the Tories desperate to paint him as in hoc to the barons.
Roy Jenkins said Tony Blair’s task in the run up to the 1997 election was “like a man carrying a priceless Ming vase across a highly polished floor”.
For Sir Keir, it’s more like a minefield.
While great strides exorcising the ghost of Corbyn have been made, the Shadow Cabinet is still a little heavy on the duds.
While Sir Keir had his nemesis in Johnson — who he clearly loathed on a personal level — he is finding Sunak a trickier customer.
If the Labour leader wants to solidify his poll lead, he needs to move his tanks on to the Tories’ lawn, rather than play-ing the disappointed teacher at every Government error.
Some Labour figures are baffled as to why the Opposition boss is still playing it safe, but this week will see his big speech setting out his priorities for the year.
My tip? Make crime pay.
If Labour can outflank the soft- touch Tories on law and order, that Labour poll lead will start to look a lot more solid.
And I don’t just say that as a victim of street crime this winter, greeted like hundreds of others with a shrug from the cops.
It’s the Government’s Achilles’ heel and could be the making of Starmer.
If he’s not too squeamish.
