While scientists have analysed the physical consequences of an all-out nuclear war, the aftermath of World War Three could bring "cascading damages" to human relations which would be "just as destructive", experts have warned.
Adam Thomson, Director of the European Leadership Network (ELN), and Paul Ingram, Research affiliate at the University of Cambridge Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, warn that "no corner of the planet would be immune" from a nuclear Armageddon. As global tensions mount, researchers have attempted to predict the level of destruction, number of fatalities and the dire environmental impacts a nuclear war would have but Thomson and Ingram note that there's been little research into the impact it would have on human relations.
In an attempt to answer how humans would react to a nuclear catastrophe, they wrote in a piece of commentary published on the ELN website: "The cascading damage to human relations – social, economic, and political – could be just as destructive as the physical consequences. These social, economic, and political factors have barely begun to feature in the research, and (with some exceptions) there is little planning within governments for the aftermath of a nuclear exchange."
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A nuclear Armageddon would have devastating impacts on human relations (Getty Images/iStockphoto)Thomson and Ingram guess that humanity would witness acts of "heroism, compassion, inventiveness" in the aftermath of a nuclear war and there's hope of "statesmanship and collaboration". But they warn there would also be "anarchy and chaos, driven by fear, misinformation, and tribalism."
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The experts say the world is now "more vulnerable" than it was when nuclear bombs were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. They noted that while trains were running into Hiroshima within just three days of the blast, today there is a universal understanding and fear of radiation that would instead cause tens of millions of people near a nuclear blast site to flee the area.
They also warn that it's unlikely many countries are prepared to receive refugees of nuclear war, writing: "It is harder to imagine borders being opened to them unless those borders were overwhelmed. Is Africa ready for the European migrant flood? Or Mexico for the American one?"
Only two cities were hit in 1945 while the nuclear warheads today are about six times more powerful and the US and Russia have access to thousands of them as the other seven nuclear-armed states have hundreds more. This means that in the case of a nuclear strike today, it's likely that the main transport, shipping, energy and communication hubs in each warring state would be hit multiple times.
No corner of the planet would be immune (Getty Images/Stocktrek Images)In turn, it could trigger mass disruptions to global economies which could cause societies to entirely "implode". Thomson and Ingram explain: "Nuclear war would occur in the northern hemisphere. At least 70% of global trade is in or with the North.
"Some 60% of the world’s servers are in the USA. The Euro-Atlantic and China account for over 50% of the world’s GDP. If all this were eliminated or massively disrupted, southern hemisphere societies might also implode." The areas that manage to escape unscathed from the initial blasts would still face severe challenges in the aftermath and the experts warn there would be little time to prepare for them.
They added: "The nature, scale, and longevity of climatic, radiation and electromagnetic pulse effects from a nuclear Armageddon would be harder to forecast than a pandemic or rising sea levels. And compared to climate change or a bio disaster its effects could be quite sudden and simultaneous, leaving little or no time for most of the international community to brace for the shock, let alone to adapt."
The pair came to a chilling conclusion: "Those areas unaffected directly by blast and radiation would need rapidly to anticipate reduced sunlight and cascading socio-economic impacts and take emergency action. In summary, no communities, no corner of the planet would be immune."
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