LESS than a week on since Rishi Sunak’s unimpressive announcement in Downing Street about the election on July 4, where are we?
Well, for most people life has gone on entirely as normal.
That, for Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives, is a problem.
As it happens, life was continuing for me in a very normal way.
My wife’s niece, Juliet, was getting married in the North East of England and I was under strict instructions that the weekend was not to be filled with “politics”.
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Instead, a celebration of people coming together, building a life together and putting politics into perspective.
For those of us who have been steeped in politics for years — in my case, 60 years this year as a member of the Labour Party — we often forget that people “have a life” which does not involve listening to politicians or getting deeply engaged with political arguments.
If Labour is to win an overall majority, and this is by no means certain, reaching those people who are not “switched on” and, therefore, connected and engaged with the political debate will be critical.
Surely the lesson, so far, is don’t attack your political opponent on issues and in a manner which is frankly unbelievable.
This was the lesson of the 1997 election, when the Conservatives portrayed Tony Blair, with “demon eyes”, as some sort of threat.
The visual images were such that people ridiculed what they knew to be entirely untrue.
In this election it is the notion that the nation’s security is somehow at risk from a Starmer government.
Given that Sir Keir has been absolutely, 100 per cent behind Government policy in terms of committing to and supporting Ukraine, and that all the crazy notions of Jeremy Corbyn five years ago are now for the birds, this line of attack is doomed from the start.
Not least because the Prime Minister’s commitment to raising defence spending is not for the next Parliament, but for the one after — in 2030!
In what is undoubtedly going to be a brutal few weeks, unlikely to do great credit to sensible and balanced dialogue or to trust and engagement with politics, there are issues which will be, in my terms, “toxic”.
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Immigration is clearly one such issue.
As a home secretary, over 20 years ago, who reached an agreement with the French which cut those coming across from Calais by two-thirds, I’m painfully aware of the practical and political challenges that exist.
However, Rishi Sunak’s decision to call a General Election unexpectedly in the summer has denied the Conservatives the right to claim that their so-called “Rwanda policy” is working.
A brutal few weeks
On the other hand, it has avoided the total embarrass- ment of calmer seas resulting in literally tens of thousands of people crossing the Channel despite the threat of being transported to East Africa.
I wouldn’t say that there is “method in Rishi Sunak’s madness” because failure to give your own policy a chance to work isn’t a great offer to the electorate.
But the more profound issue is the countless numbers of people who have been labelled by recent legislation as “illegal” and are completely stuck in the system.
These are people who came across the Channel without documentation and can’t claim asylum.
They are not being processed, not going anywhere and costing us a fortune.
Here’s a thought. Why would anyone, after the last turbulent and, some would say (including me), disastrous 14 years, vote Conservative?
I will, during the General Election, come back to this theme, but suffice it to say that, despite my tribal ideology and commitment to the Labour Party, I am not yet convinced that Labour will win by an avalanche.
Pollsters and pundits all think it is a foregone conclusion. I’m not so sure.
Mountain to climb
Labour enter this election with only 205 MPs thanks to the antics of Jeremy Corbyn and the far Left.
There needs to be the most enormous swing of more than 12 per cent to get an overall majority, and this involves overturning Conservative seats where, in 2019, they won by 15,000 to 16,000 votes!
It is a mountain to climb.
So, although I wish, profoundly, that I am wrong, I predict, at this stage of the General Election, that a good result for Labour would be an overall majority of 20.
I don’t believe the Conservatives can win, but I think it is by no means certain that Labour are yet home and dry.
Complacency is always the killer.
