At the end of last year, speaking to several people at Red Bull, it seemed it was only a matter of time until Liam Lawson was driving for one of their teams.
One even asserted to Mirror Sport that the Kiwi would most likely be on the grid at some point this season. That is still a possibility, of course, but one which is fading as the weeks go by - as are his hopes of a 2025 berth.
The equation is simple - there are four race seats across Red Bull's two Formula 1 teams and currently five top drivers on the books. As much as Mercedes want to lure Max Verstappen away, there has been no evidence to indicate he's going anywhere in the next 12 months.
That leaves four into three. Before the start of this season it seemed the most likely outcome would be Sergio Perez given his marching orders and Daniel Ricciardo promoted to the top squad in his place, which would create room for Lawson alongside Yuki Tsunoda at sister team RB.
However, a strong start to the season has convinced Red Bull that Perez remains the best choice to continue racing alongside Verstappen. Barring a significant change of heart, the Mexican will get an extension and remain a Red Bull racer in 2025.
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The questions marks have shifted instead to Ricciardo. He has scored points on one occasion so far this year and only twice across the 15 race weekends he has taken part in since he was called up to replace Nyck de Vries in the middle of last season.
That record is not good enough, yet he still remains in favour with Red Bull. As does Tsunoda who, in his fourth year as an F1 driver, is lucky to have been given as many contract extensions as he has, but who is now showing the sort of form justifying the decision to keep him around.
Yuki Tsunoda's improved form and results have been very impressive (Getty Images)With 19 points, the Japanese racer is in the top half of the drivers' standings and has scored with impressive consistency, at five of the eight events held so far in 2024. It's not enough to make him a serious contender for promotion to the main Red Bull team yet, but Christian Horner will have to pay attention if this form continues.
But it seems there is no room for Lawson after all, with RB chief executive Peter Bayer "very happy with both our drivers". He said: "We're not wasting time with discussing ifs and whens. We have a very strong line-up. We have a great reserve driver. We have great talent coming through F2, F3. Currently, it's all about focusing on performance - the focus is more on Aston Martin in front of us than on driver discussions."
Lawson has no interest in remaining a reserve for another year, though - he was already frustrated after missing out on a 2024 seat following his impressive five-race stint filling in for Ricciardo when he was injured last year. Another snub, and Red Bull risk losing the top talent from their young driver pool to a rival. Surely, there will be plenty of interested teams.
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