Prison are close to running out of room because politicians have spent decades pushing for harsher sentences in an effort to appear ‘tough on crime
The analysis is part of an independent review set up by the government after the UK’s prison system came close to collapsing last summer
Inmates were released early
But the latest report suggests the situation will only be solved for good if ministers are prepared to carry out drastic reforms to sentencing.
It paints a damning picture of a country where the narrative about crime – pushed by politicians and the media – has not matched the reality for years, setting in motion an escalating crisis.
Despite crime generally trending downwards for the past 30 years, it says, surveys show most of the general public believes it has done the opposite.
The report argues that this, alongside a belief that longer imprisonment is the only effective way to punish criminals, has pressed successive governments to ramp up sentencing – pushing capacity to breaking point.
Former Conservative Justice Secretary David Gauke, who is chair of the Independent Sentencing Review, said: ‘It is clear that in order to address the capacity issues we face, we must have an honest conversation about who we send to prison, and for how long.
‘Punishment will always be a central aim of the criminal justice system, but it is not the only aim, and prison is not the only form of punishment.’
Former Justice Secretary and Lord Chancellor David Gauke is leading the review (Picture: WIktor Szymanowicz/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
According to the report, prison demand is expected to increase by an average of 3,000 people each year at the current trajectory.
To house them all, two high-capacity prisons would need to be built annually.
Among the drivers of this increase, it says, is the significant rise in the use of recall for those on licence: in 1993, the recall population was less than 100, but at the end of December last year it reached 12,920.
That is one of the individual issues that will be explored by the Independent Sentencing Review panel before it reveals its proposals for reform in the spring.
However, the new report’s analysis also demonstrates how difficult it is likely to be for an already-unpopular government to convince the public of the need for a dramatic shift away from locking up criminals.
Shadow Justice Secretary Robert Jenrick said wholesale sentencing reforms are not needed (Photo by Dan Kitwood/Getty Images)
Andrew Neilson, Director of Campaigns at the Howard League for Penal Reform, said ‘radical solutions are needed’ if the situation is to be resolved.
He added: ‘This is not simply a crisis of prison capacity. Our overcrowded and violent prisons are breeding grounds for crime, while probation services are overstretched and under-resourced within the community.
‘We welcome these findings from the Review and look forward to proposals to reset the system.
‘Action cannot come quickly enough if we are to achieve a sustainable and more effective course for prisons and probation in the future.’
But Shadow Justice Secretary Robert Jenrick argued the best way to tackle the crisis in prisons would be to speed up trials and deportations.
He said: ‘Those on remand awaiting trial, plus foreign national offenders, make up roughly a third of the prison population. That’s far too high.
‘Labour should be deporting foreign nationals and expanding court capacity instead of plotting to abolish short sentences.’
The most recent available statistics, from October last year, show around 20% of the prison population was on remand while 12% of the total prison population was made up of foreign nationals.
However, a third of the foreign national prison population is on remand, meaning they will have been counted twice and the true combined figure of the two groups is around 27% of the prison population.
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