Labour has '99% chance' of general election victory, says Prof John Curtice

27 March 2024 , 09:54

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Labour is on course to lead the next Government, according to a top polling guru (Image: Getty Images)

Labour has a "99% chance" of forming the next Government, a top pollster has said.

Professor Sir John Curtice delivered the dire warning to Rishi Sunak as the embattled Tories continue to languish behind Keir Starmer's party in the polls. The latest poll by Savanta found Tory fortunes have slumped to the worst state since Liz Truss's disastrous mini-Budget, with Labour 20 points ahead on 44% and the Conservatives on just 24%.

Prof Curtice said there is now a “99% chance of Labour forming the next administration.” Speaking to Politico, he said: "It’s clearly a very small chance that the Tories are going to be in government after the autumn.”

The polling guru said the Tories are unlikely to mount a comeback even if Mr Sunak clings on to the last minute - and Labour were more likely to lead a minority Government if no party wins a majority. He said: “The Labour Party will be in a much stronger position to negotiate a minority government than the Conservatives because, apart from possibly the DUP, the Conservatives have no friends in the House of Commons."

The Prime Minister chickened out of calling a general election to coincide with the local elections in May as he desperately tries to turn things around. He has suggested he will name a date in the second half of the year, with the middle of November currently considered to be the most likely.

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But his leadership will be tested after the local elections on May 2, where the Tories are expected to face heavy losses. Analysts Michael Thrasher and Colin Rallings warn the Conservatives could lose up to 500 seats - half of those they are defending - if they repeat their poor performance in last year's local polls.

It comes after the PM was forced into a mini reshuffle when he lost two well-respected ministers on Tuesday. Skills Minister Robert Halfon and Armed Forces Minister James Heappey both quit their posts so they can step down as MPs at the election. More than 60 Tories have declared they will not contest their seats, with more expected to follow, as they fear wipeout at the polls.

Lizzy Buchan