NERVY allies of SNP leadership favourite Humza Yousaf are worried he will be pipped at the post today by Kate Forbes.
The Health Secretary is bookies’ favourite to beat Ms Forbes and Ash Regan when the next First Minister is announced tomorrow afternoon.
The SNP elite backing Mr Yousaf fear the contest is as close and unpredictable as the 2016 Brexit vote, it emerged tonight.
Sources in the camps of Mr Yousaf and second favourite Ms Forbes insisted they are in the dark over who is winning ahead of the result being announced at 2pm tomorrow.
But senior figures on both sides yesterday said the outcome may hinge on ‘second preference’ votes in the election system where SNP members rank candidates in their ideal order.
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Health Secretary Mr Yousaf’s allies fear that if he doesn’t get over the 50 per cent winning line in the first round of counting, outsider MSP Ms Regan’s backers could swing the contest by putting Finance Secretary Ms Forbes as their No2.
Bookies last night showed Mr Yousaf was still the clear favourite to be voted in by the SNP’s 72,000 members — at between 2/7 and 1/6.
The latest odds on Ms Forbes were between 3/1 and 14/5.
But a supporter of Mr Yousaf said: “Everyone is running possible figures in their heads but there are so many uncertainties.”
And referring to the Brexit referendum result in 2016, the insider added: “It could well end up as another 52/48 - either way.”
Another source backing Mr Yousaf said: “We might find Humza has done enough to get past 50 per cent in the first round.
“If he hasn’t, and he’s quite a bit short, then it could be trouble.”
But a third said: “I think he’s done enough, even if only just.”
The potential for a 48/52 split has been discussed recently in Scottish Government circles, where current SNP ministers and advisers are overwhelmingly backing Mr Yousaf.
The result will be announced at Murrayfield stadium in Edinburgh.
The new SNP leader is then due to be voted in by MSPs tomorrow as First Minister, replacing Ms Sturgeon following her shock resignation on February 15.
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However, if Ms Forbes wins there are fears some Nats may refuse to back her after she admitted she’d have voted against gay marriage if she been an MSP in 2014.
But there are claims that the race will be decided by a “silent majority” of SNP members who are not hardened activists.
A source in the Forbes camp said: “We genuinely haven’t a clue how it’s going. It is hard to say how close it is.
“Considering Humza has had the whole organisation of government behind him, even a narrow win would be seen as a disappointment.
“The big uncertainty is the quiet members — not the ones you see leafleting or standing behind the candidates at campaign events.
“The ones who just pay their subs and don’t have much to do with anything on a daily basis.
“Nobody knows what they have been thinking. Polls have been suggesting there have been high numbers of undecideds.”
Yesterday, Mr Yousaf and Ms Forbes both posted last-ditch video pleas on social media.
Ms Forbes pointed to repeated polls showing she is the most popular with the general public adding: “Change happens only when we vote for it. Independence happens only if we win
“It is clear that I am the only candidate who can deliver that ultimate prize.”
Mr Yousaf said: “I’m the only candidate that will protect our pro-independence majority in parliament, that will stand up to Westminster’s veto [on Holyrood’s gender self-ID law].
“And I’m the only candidate that can build the team needed to deliver independence for Scotland.”
Polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice said if Nats chose Mr Yousaf, he would be “somebody who will probably have relative unity in the parliamentary party” and he would “largely continue the policy direction of the SNP government as it currently is”.
But Sir John said Mr Yousaf is “not very popular with the public”.
And on Ms Forbes, the Strathclyde Uni academic said: “Or do you go for somebody who will struggle to unite the parliamentary party, with whom some parliamentarians have come close to burning bridges, but who undoubtedly has much wider public appeal among those who are not SNP supporters.”
“Not an easy choice. Neither is one that’s necessarily guaranteed to land the SNP in a good place.”
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