THE SNP could be nearing “complete collapse” as experts have warned a by-election loss to Labour could fuel a further exodus of MPs.
So far, seven Nats have confirmed they will quit at next year’s General Election — including their deputy Westminster leader Mhairi Black and the party’s ex-Commons chief Ian Blackford.
Professor James Mitchell, of Edinburgh University’s School of Social and Political Science, said: “It’s like watching pieces fall off a once-mighty building while those in charge seem powerless to do anything about it.
“And, most worrying of all for the SNP leadership, a near-complete collapse cannot now be ruled out.”
It comes as polls predict heavy losses for Humza Yousaf’s party — amid claims some could be abandoning ship rather than facing defeat.
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Analysts have told The Scottish Sun on Sunday the SNP has entered the “danger zone” with a “declining reputation for competence”.
This week, Falkirk MP John McNally became the seventh Westminster Nat to say he would not be standing again.
And veteran MP Angus MacNeil also revealed he would not retake the party whip following a week-long ban — and hit out at a lack of an independence strategy from SNP chiefs.
On Friday, it emerged party bosses had suspended his membership.
The apparent exodus has led to questions over the decline of the Nats — who won 56 of the 59 Scottish House of
Commons seats in 2015.
Prof Mitchell said: “The SNP has now entered the danger zone that parties find themselves in after being in power over a long period of time and with a declining reputation for competence.
“Its own MPs know this and, while some may have decided to retire due to their age, they all know that independence is not in sight and that they will simply be going through the motions of remaining an MP even if they were to be re-elected.
“These decisions to retire feed the sense of decline.
“SNP MPs can read the polls as well as anyone and will be more aware than most of the party’s internal problems.
“Unless something unforeseen and dramatic occurs, the next election may be a case of 2015 in reverse — and without the traditional base of support that the SNP used to rely on.”
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Recent polls have forecast heavy losses for the Nats at next year’s vote.
It is predicted they could lose as many as 23 seats, with one survey suggesting Labour could overtake the SNP as the biggest Scottish party at Westminster for the first time since 2015.
Pollster Mark Diffley, of the Diffley Partnership, said: “The polling is bad for the SNP but the thing is they are still ahead and it could be worse.
“It’s not exactly a slogan for an election to come but I think it could be.
“Some MPs will be looking at the polling and the size of their own individual majorities in their seats, and thinking, as a lot of Tories are doing in England, maybe it’s time to move on before the inevitable happens.”
But he does not believe that was the cause for Mr Blackford and Ms Black, who gave detailed reasons for their
decision to quit.
Mr Diffley added: “I guess for some of them, they are looking at the polling and thinking Labour might get an extra ten or 15 seats, and the direction of travel suggests it might get worse for the SNP. It doesn’t look good.”
The first real test of the electorate ahead of next year will be the expected by-election in Rutherglen and Hamilton West in the autumn.
A recall petition is currently being carried out in the constituency after former SNP MP Margaret Ferrier’s 30-day Westminster suspension for breaching Covid restrictions by travelling on public transport despite testing positive for the virus in 2020.
Mr Diffley said he believes a by-election in Rutherglen and Hamilton West will be “really important”, not just for the SNP but for Labour too.
He said: “If Labour don’t win that then they’re in trouble really — or at least they’re not making the progress that everyone suspects they are.”
But he added: “If Labour win that by a big margin, might that then prompt other SNP MPs to think again for next year as well?”
Despite the current state of things, Mr Diffley said: “I still think if the SNP sorts itself out, it will suffer losses next year for sure, but it will not be the absolute wipeout that some people are suggesting.”
Earlier this year, the SNP was thrown into crisis when former chief executive Peter Murrell was arrested and the home he shares with wife ex-First Minister Nicola Sturgeon was raided by cops.
A luxury motorhome was also seized by police from outside the home of Mr Murrell’s mother’s.
The party’s former treasurer Colin Beattie has also been arrested, as has Ms Sturgeon. All three were released without charge.
It is part of a long-running Police Scotland investigation into the SNP’s finances after complaints about how money raised in an online independence fundraising campaign was spent. SNP deputy leader Keith Brown said: “Top level analysis is always interesting but — and we have seen this before in 2011 — it ignores the reality of how the SNP Government under a new First Minister is delivering what matters to people on the ground.
“As households continue to be hammered by the Westminster-made cost of living crisis, with almost half of adults struggling to make their mortgage or rental payments, the SNP is taking action where it can to support ordinary people. In the tough financial circumstances of Brexit Britain, Scotland managed to negotiate a good pay deal in our health service.
“And we remain the only part of the UK to have avoided strike action in
the NHS.
“This takes hard work and commitment which, both in government and at next year’s general election, the SNP will continue to deliver and put the needs of the people of Scotland first.”
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